Essays
Recent workPolitical Economy
On China V - The Politics of Control
Xi Jinping and the machinery of power
China will not rebalance. The mechanism that gives Xi total control is the same mechanism that guarantees its unwinding.
On China
On China IV — The Missing Generation
Demography and the boundaries of power
On China
On China III — The Unraveling Order
Concentration, leverage, and the fracture to come
On China
On China II — The Export Machine
The model that saved China, and the trap inside it
On China
On China I — The Ancient Condition
Geography and the roots of Chinese fragility
Industrial policy
On Industrial Gravity
American strategy and the cost of incoherence
Foreign policy
The Arithmetic of Alarm
Institutional threat inflation in American foreign policy
Energy & AI
The Grid Will Have Its Say
AI adoption under energy constraints
Maritime security
The Repricing of Order
Maritime security and the cost of trade
Technology
Consider the Word Processor
A cautionary note on technology and productivity
